Back in the bad old days before computers (and before the rising costs of energy) there was a certain excess capacity, a fudge factor built into these systems. Let's start with airlines. Planes rarely flew full - almost every flight had 10 or 20 empty seats, often in first class, but they were there. So a problem - a mechanical issue, weather, a late flight, dumped 100 or 200 passengers that were quickly absorbed into a reasonably robust system.
These days a single flight cancellation can cause major havoc to a system running at capacity, without the ability to absorb extra bodies. Twice in the past few weeks, I've been on late / cancelled flights, and instead of being told "we can get you there in a few hours" the answer has been "we can get you there late tomorrow". In both cases, my trips were not mission critical, I simply canceled them, and got reimbursed. So I (and other customers) end up suppplying the extra capacity - instead of the airlines, some passengers cross the threshold of arriving too late or not at all, and simply leave the system.
The recent blizzard debacle in Denver is good case. Weather is unpredictable - but one wonders if the impact of closing one airport sent too many shockwaves through the system. And how long will it be before those stranded (in Denver, or elsewhere) get to where they are going? My bet - a lot of the excess capacity will come from passengers - deciding not to fly this holiday, not getting home, taking alternate forms of transportation.
Some travelers gave up hope of making it home for the holidays as airlines running at near-full capacity had little room on planes for thousands stranded after Denver International Airport closed amid a blizzard.
Trends to look out for as a result: alternate transportation channels (trains?) are going to begin looking more reasonable / realistic. And travel agencies (yahoo travelocity, in my case) are going to lose sales - since in both cases I could not get credited immediately from the airline. In future, I may find flights via a travel service but book direct with the airline.
That's the air travel industry. In the case of the electric utilities, the free market has split generation from distribution. So electric utilities are no longer able to paternally plan for capacity and reserves - they buy kilowatts on the free market, and market forces drive available capacity. But the result is that the system optimizes rather quickly to a capacity point which has no margin for error or for severe circumstances. The blackout of 2003 is one result. Another result is that utilities are switching power grids and capacitors more and more to maintain system reliability (impacting quality of the power). In the past, the system had extra capacity, had reserves.
Finally, in the case of hospital beds, the old days of subsidized hospitals with plenty of extra beds has given way to industry consolidation and specialization. Hospitals with extra beds are closed or consolidated or specialized. Elective procedures formerly done inpatient are pushed to clinics, hospital stays become convalescent stays. And the next time there is a serious health crisis - an epidemic, a pandemic, a new disease, a terrorist attack, a natural disaster - well, those in need of medical care will be out in the halls and in the streets.
My theory is that left to the free market, under cost pressures, and in the age of information systems, the excess capacity gets squeezed out of these systems pretty quickly. But perhaps a little bit of excess capacity is not a bad thing - to deal with extenuating circumstances, worst case scenarios. And unless the government steps in to mandate that capacity, to subsidize that capacity - well, it will not be there when we need it.
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